DEVELOPMENT OF A FUZZY TIME SERIES MODEL USING CAT SWARM OPTIMIZATION CLUSTERING AND OPTIMIZED WEIGHTS OF FUZZY RELATIONS
- Project Research
- 1-5 Chapters
- Abstract : Available
- Table of Content: Available
- Reference Style: APA
- Recommended for : Student Researchers
- NGN 5000
ABSTRACT
This research developed a hybrid forecasting technique that integrates Cat Swarm Optimization Clustering (CSO-C) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithms with Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) forecasting model. Cat Swarm Optimization Clustering (CSO-C) which is an algorithm for data classification is adopted at the fuzzification stage to objectively partition the universe of discourse into unequal intervals. Then, disambiguated fuzzy relationships are obtained using Fuzzy Set Grouping (FSG). Finally, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was adopted to optimize the defuzzification phase; by tuning weights assigned to fuzzy sets in a rule. This rule is a fuzzy logical relationship induced from a fuzzy set group (FSG). The clustering and optimization algorithms were implemented in MATLAB. Belgium road yearly accident data, Alabama University yearly student enrolment data, Taiwan future exchange data, University of Maiduguri (UNIMAID) yearly student enrolment data and Jigawa state yearly temperature data were collected and used to evaluate the developed hybrid model. To evaluate the forecasting efficiency of the developed hybrid model, its statistical performance metric of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) were calculated and compared with previous techniques in the literature. Improvement was achieved in the developed forecasting technique, when compared with the benchmark Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) model of Qiang Song and Brad S. Chissom part I and II in forecasting student enrolment of University of Alabama. Results showed that an RMSE of 6.669 and MAPE result of 0.033%was obtained when compared with the benchmark work of Song and Chissom in student enrolment whose result was an RMSE of 650 and MAPE of 3.22%. There is also an improvement, in comparison to Fuzzy CMeans FTS based model of Yusuf et al (2015) whose result showed an RMSE of 7.02 and MAPE of 0.04%. The application of developed model on Belgium car road accident obtained an RMSE result of 5.931 and MAPE result of 0.346%which is an improvement over FCM based FTS model with RMSE of 19.2 and MAPE of 0.67%.Similarly, on application an RMSE of 2.571 and MAPE of 0.0375%were obtained in the forecast of University of Maiduguri student enrolment while in Jigawa monthly temperature forecast RMSE of 0.357 and MAPE of 0.1% were obtained. Relatively, the points on the plots followed a steady trend with the actual values for enrolment and temperature forecast respectively.
Related Project Materials
An Examination of Nurses' Role in Improving Quality of Life for Prostate Cancer Patients in Federal Medical Centre, Minna, Niger State
Background of the Study
Prostate cancer is one of the most prevalent cancers among men, with its inci...
Analysis of the Impact of Data-Driven Decision Making on University Budget Allocation in Kaduna State University, Kaduna State
Background of the Study
University budget allocation is a complex process that significantly influences the overall academ...
The role of professional STEM associations in education advancement in Gamawa LGA, Bauchi State
Background of the Study
Professional STEM associations play a pivotal role in shaping the future of education by bridging...
ELECTRONIC LOGBOOK FOR STUDENTS INDUSTRIAL WORK EXPERIENCE SCHEME (S.I.W.E.S)
ABSTRACT
This project, Electronic logbook for Student’s Industrial Work Experience Scheme was designed to minimize...
Effectiveness of Radio Campaigns in Preventing Drug Abuse: A Study of Nguru Local Government Area, Yobe State
Background of the Study
Drug abuse is a significant social problem in many regions, including Nguru LGA in Yobe State, wher...
DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION OF A COMPUTERISED RESTURANT MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM CASE STUDY JEVENIKS RESTURANT ENUGU STATE
ABSTRACT
This project work is primarily designed to give an insight to computer based restaurant management information system. It is as...
An Assessment of Nurses' Knowledge of Community-Based Interventions for Malaria Control at Akwa Ibom State University Teaching Hospital
Background of the Study
Malaria remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, includi...
An Appraisal of Hospital Emergency Preparedness for Disease Outbreaks at University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital
Background of the Study
Hospital emergency preparedness is critical in mitigating the impact of disea...
The Impact of Digital Media on Language Diversity in Sokoto South Local Government Area, Sokoto State
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background of the Study
ABSTRACT This study investigates the coverage areas of VHF and UHF signals of two television stations in Ekiti State, Nigeria by quantita...
ADAPTATION OF EMPIRICAL ELECTRIC FIELD STRENGTH MODELS FOR TERRESTRIAL TELEVISION BROADCAST IN EKITI STATE, NIGERIA
